China's State Corporatism Has Failed to Lead the Majority to Prosperity

Here is one way in which authoritarian China is failing.

China's state corporatism has not lead the majority of the country toward prosperity.  This investment-led, unidirectional, export-oriented growth model has yielded phenomenal GDP growth, but it has failed to benefit the majority of the Chinese people. 

  1. State-led fixed investment continues to be the greatest contributor to Chinese growth since the 1990's.  This domestically funded fixed investment buys machinery and builds infrastructure.  About 75 percent growth this year  – now touching 8 percent – has been achieved through state-led fixed investment, coming from this year's massive $586 billion stimulus.
  2. State-led models for growth usually lead to structural inequalities that are difficult to solve.  State-controlled banks drawing bank loans from citizen's deposits constitute 80 percent of all investment activity in the country. State  enterprises receive three-quarters of the nation's capital but only produce one quarter to one third of the output.  Noteworthy, state controlled enterprises received more than 95 percent of the 2009 stimulus money.  The Chinese state sector owns at least two thirds of all fixed assets in the country.
  3. China's fast-track revolution is not sustainable (i.e. undervalued currency).  Beijing has rejected out of hand growing concern expressed by the U.S. about an artificially undervalued Chinese currency that makes its exports so competitive that a Western consumer would be almost foolish not to favor them over locally made goods. China has complained, each time they hear this concern, that the West, having established its affluence, would deny them the fast-track industrial revolutions in which they're swept up. But this phenomenon is not sustainable.
  4. China's financing of US indebtedness triggered the global banking meltdown.  As long as China was prepared earlier this decade to finance America's growing indebtedness, U.S. interest rates stayed low, helping fuel the biggest U.S. housing boom-bust on record. Which of course triggered the global banking meltdown that in turn ushered in a sudden, severe worldwide recession. Among those to suffer was China, whose export volumes plummeted, and which was perhaps fastest out of the gate with a massive government stimulus program.
  5. Alignment or re-balancing of global imbalances has become a central challenge. And the quest to bring nations into "alignment" will define this century no less than the challenge of climate change.
  6. The US cannot continue to be the principal driver of economic growth worldwide. The American middle class, the greatest driver of economic activity in history, has seen its income plateau over the past several decades, and actually decline when soaring costs for health care are taken into account.

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